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Author Topic:   Watching And Warning (March 2003)
Earl Green
True Believer
posted 03-16-2003 07:03 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Dear Tom Ridge,

I hear you're talking about adding another "alert level" to our national terror alert system, something between orange and red. Burnt sienna, maybe. Or ochre. Maybe fuschia. Well, Mr. Ridge, let me tell you, your system is never really going to have the visceral, "call-to-action" effect on me that you'd like. Not that it's a deeply flawed system whose "alert levels" occasionally get bumped up as knee-jerk reactions to hearsay or just paranoia - no, I'm not implying that at all. It's just that your terror alert scale can never quite compete for the cumulative dread that can be instilled in my heart by two simple words.

Tornado warning.

Springtime is lurking around the corner, and in this part of the lower midwest - the Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/Arkansas/Missouri corridor known collectively as Tornado Alley - this young man's fancy turns to thoughts of hiding in a closet with my wife and my cats and praying a lot. Few things bring to my surface quite the same mixture of scientific curiosity, awe, and unabashed terror as taking shelter during a tornado warning.

For those who live in parts of the country where this phenomenon just doesn't happen everyday, let me explain to you the unique lifestyle that is spring/early summer in Tornado Alley.

As the warmer seasons take hold, the plains states experience a unique but potent cocktail of daytime heating, humidity, and a rapid-fire parade of high and low pressure systems. Warm and cold air masses collide over the earth's surface, competing for airspace. Where the two meet, energy builds up and releases violently. And after all this time, no one is really sure how or why it happens, but the sky decides to pay the earth a visit, frequently trying to pick up souvenirs. The storms dissipate, but in the meantime have usually dumped a lot of rain - inches at a time, not fractions of an inch. The next day's daytime heating exacerbates the existing humidity...and it begins again. It's a constant cycle, sometimes throwing day after day of violent storms at you, or sometimes saving it all for an all-night reign of terror as several storm blast through in quick succession. Without wanting to draw a banal comparison, I can really only imagine that this is part of what it must feel like to stand at a bus stop in Tel Aviv on any given day.

As short-lived a storm as a tornado is, it can concentrate more violence than a hurricane can muster into a concentrated space. Small towns can literally be wiped out. And it doesn't do larger cities any favors either. I found this out quite intimately on April 21st, 1996. A friend of mine from California - who I talked to two or three times a week - had called earlier that Sunday night, asking me if I was in the path of some seriously bad weather that had been brewing all afternoon in Oklahoma. I explained to him that, while I was alert to the situation, the Arkansas River - which conveniently carves the state line between Arkansas and Oklahoma along the western-most city limits - had a history of deflecting storms, and would probably do so again this evening.

A few hours later, half of the city was without power, the roof had been peeled away from part of my apartment, allowing rain to pour in by the bucket, and for that matter, no one was sure the building would still be standing by morning. And my cats were under a couch, traumatized for life. They still run to me and crouch down at my feet if they hear so much as a clap of thunder. Two people were dead. Whole buildings in the city's historic district - boasting structures over a century old - were now piles of brick and rubble. And the hell of it is, nobody saw it coming until the last possible moment.

Wait a minute, this is just like the terror alert scale.

A particularly nasty supercell - a storm which packs a lot of energy into a larger structure than usual, and the kind of storm which is responsible for most tornadoes - had barrelled up through southeastern Oklahoma, dropping multiple funnel clouds as it went. When it reached the Arkansas/Oklahoma state line, the storm was powerful enough that it simply couldn't be bothered by a mere river. It raced through downtown Fort Smith, going right in front of my apartment building and taking a left just past my workplace at the opposite end of the block. It then carved a path through north Fort Smith, killing two children when it hit a house, skipped the river again, and then destroyed a large chunk of the neighboring city to our north. On its way out of that city, it destroyed more homes, killing a man and his young son in the process, before finally lifting back into the clouds.

All of this took less than half an hour. (For a more in-depth description of this event, with quite a few photos, click here.)

And this was a weak storm, an F-1 on the Fujita Scale as later investigation revealed. This was a baby.

And prior to this, there was perhaps a minute's warning, since the Tulsa branch of the National Weather Service - which has serviced the Fort Smith area since Fort Smith's own office was closed in a round of budget cutbacks in the early 1990s - simply hadn't believed amateur radio storm spotters' claims that the storm was as bad as they said. The command to sound the torando sirens came so late that, after mere seconds, those sirens were silence by the power outage as the tornado smashed through a downtown power substation. Still fairly new to the task of watching over that far easten part of their territory, Tulsa's meteorologists weren't even clear on where certain specific landmarks were with regard to the spotters' reports. It was a bad situation for those of us depending on the forecast, but a bad situation also for the people issuing the forecast. A real worst-case scenario. There were later major management changes at the Tulsa bureau, changes which were unusually public. But since people had lost their lives, that was probably to be expected.

As recently as last year, I've had to hit the deck as well. The only problem is that the post-1996 culture at the Weather Service has been to sometimes jump the gun on issuing a tornado warning and firing off the civil defense sirens. (Due to nasty storm experiences in my childhood, the sound of those sirens has always terrified me in a way that few things can. They're frequently tested at noon on Tuesdays, provided no actual severe weather is expected, and waking up to that sound is not one of my favorite sensory experiences, nor is the accompanying sensation of my two cats leaping under the covers with me at full speed.

So, back to orange alert? No problem. Doesn't worry me. I've known some real terror. The spring months are loaded with many days spent under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch, in anticipation of bad weather. Unlike the national terror alert system, I takethose quite seriously. I've got a weather alert radio at home which fires off a loud signal if any kind of watch or warning is issued for my area. Unlike the national terror alert system, the weather advisories command my attention and my respect. I've had far too many close calls to look at it any other way. After three decades, it's ingrained into me almost like combat readiness training.

Hopefully there will be no need for me to grow to feel that same dread about whether we're at yellow or orange alert. Trust me, you don't want to know what it's like.

[This message has been edited by Earl Green (edited 03-16-2003).]

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 03-17-2003 11:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You know, when you hear complaints about weather forecasting, it's usually minor griping that the local TV guy didn't tell us it was going to rain and I left my umbrella at home. It's easy to forget that we also rely on these forecasts to warn us of such chaotic and destructive forces. When a big weather event comes along, it just seems to remind us of how much of a crapshoot it all is. I remember during last month's big snowstorms, the local TV meteorologist looked like the storm was physically kicking his ass, as he kept upping the snowfall estimates.

Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for meteorology. The fact that folks can even get in the ballpark predicting some of these crazy systems is amazing. It's just sobering when you think about what the stakes are.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 03-17-2003 06:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Further proof that the National Weather Service is far more organized than the Terror Alert system, fresh off the wire:

OKC017-172330-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 505 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST CANADIAN COUNTY. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NILES... OR NEAR BINGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NILES

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE WALLS.

(That's quite a way away from me, by the way. If there's a way I can say "way" any more in this sentence, I'll weigh the option of doing so.)

But let's look at that. We have:

* Precisely why the warning was issued.

* Instructions on what to do now that the warning has been issued.

* The areas affected by the warning.

* A timetable of when the emergency could be over.

All in all, very informative.

That said, the storm system causing this is going to roll through Oklahoma tonight and pay me a visit tomorrow...and that's the kind of information that Tom Ridge and the whole Homeland Security Peanuts Gang really don't have at their disposal.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 04-12-2003 06:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Another quick dose of scary weather here: I was talking with an old friend recently who grew up in the same area I did and, like me, he's a fellow weather-watcher. We were reminiscing about the full-screen warning graphics that the local CBS station used to cut into programming with, usually with the EBS tone followed by the voice of the weather service announcer. Let me tell you, I was by myself once when one of these tornado warning screens popped up in the middle of my cartoons, and then the sirens started up and the power went off in rapid succession. When you're five or so, and you're absolutely by yourself in the house when that happens...well, I was a nervous wreck for many weeks after that. And who wouldn't be after seeing the following?

These are fairly precise recreations that I cooked up myself, but they're spot-on enough that I got chills just making 'em.

Now, once again, there's a warning system that inspires true terror. Incidentally, years later when I found myself working in TV, I was asked to come up with a similar system of full-screen cut-ins, and I deliberately strove to replicate that glorious and terrifying Red Screen Of Death.

Management vetoed it. Said it was too bold, too scary. I wonder if my old boss is working for Ridge now - y'know, we want fear to permeate every fiber of your being and every nanosecond of your life. But we don't want you to worry about it.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 04-14-2003 12:49 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Hell, I'm impressed that you had an actual use for the Emergency Broadcast System. When I was a kid, it seemed like they were always testing it and never using it. (I remember a lot of the graphics for the test being pretty stark and imposing as well.)

What I also like about the weather system is that there's none of the vague-color-code stuff. It comes right out and says it: Tornado Warning. Severe Thunderstorm Warning. I even think I'm starting to understand the difference between a watch and a warning.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 04-15-2003 03:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Yeah, I wish the gang at Home Base Security, in their efforts to keep the terrorists from making that last run from third base, would just quanify stuff and develop specific protocols. Is it a chemical attack? Then call it what it is. Is it a nuclear attack? Then for God's sake, say it, and have a more specific procedure to follow than "uhhhhh....where's the duct tape?"

In a business that's every bit as life-threatening as bad weather, the Department of Homegrown Security really needs to learn from the National Weather Service's specificity. If it's a thunderstorm warning, I know to start shutting down sensitive electrical devices, close the windows and disconnect the computer from phone and power. If it's a tornado warning, I know to go grab the kitty kennels and get my cats ready for a wild ride in the hall closet. It's that specificity that saves lives when used properly, not a bunch of vague stuff about duct tape and plastic sheeting that so many people have instinctively pegged as being ineffectual if it's something really bad.

slgorman
One of the Regulars
posted 04-15-2003 12:29 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for slgorman   Click Here to Email slgorman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Hell, I'm impressed that you had an actual use for the Emergency Broadcast System.

I hate that tone they use. It always reminds me of earthquakes. Not just small, easy to ride out quakes--no, more on the Northridge kind of scale.

Some time in the days after Sept. 11 our PBS radio station "accidentally" played the EBS tone followed by silence for about a minute. I was in the car driving to see my family in the rain and was absolutely convinced that some terrorist had blown up downtown San Francisco. I mean, why else would they play that tone and then follow it with dead air? When they came back on they just continued like nothing had happened. Once I got to my mom's I called them and told them if they ever did that again not only would I stop sending them money but I may very well sue them for emotional distress.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 04-20-2003 02:07 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Got a fresh reminder of real terror tonight as a tornado passed right overhead. Even with the sirens blaring at full volume, everything was drowned out by the most unearthly, god-awful, window-rattling, almost sub-bass roar. It's kinda hard to describe in a way that would do it justice.

It did touch down, not too far south of here. Not sure about damage there, but it destroyed our Dish network system and pelted hail at our cars and house as it went by.

So, again, the system does work. On the downside, I still needed to change my pants once the sirens shut down and my wife and my cats and I could come out of hiding in the hall closet. (No 'coming out of the closet' jokes, please.)

Whew.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 05-12-2003 10:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Wow. Just saw the latest statistic regarding this month's tornado outbreak (during which I had to take cover five times, and had to stay late at work for almost every night): at least 434 tornadoes in May 2003. And the month's not even half over. This sets the all-time record for twisters in one month.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 05-16-2003 09:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Here are a couple of pictures I took while driving to work during the tail end of today's tornado outbreak - nice little wall cloud shortly before it fell apart and stopped trying to spin down to the ground.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 06-05-2003 11:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As they say in Arkansas all too frequently, "Wellllll, would ya lookeee here?" Turns out even Ridge is acknowledging that the system is far from perfect.

Why that is, as you'll see, no one seems to be able to agree on.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 06-27-2003 08:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
"A savage reads weather signs with great expertness; civilized man institues a weather service by which signs are artificially secured and information is distributed in advance of the appearance of any signs that could be detected without special methods."

-John Dewey, How We Think, 1910

All times are ET (US)

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