Seeing the Future
Louis Menand has written and edited a number of books about the pragmatist philosophers. I use his anthology Pragmatism: A Reader in my American Thinkers courses. Thanks to a post by Lore Sjoberg at Slumbering Lungfish, I found this terrific book review Menand has written about a book that sounds fascinating: Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The book is the result of a long-term study of pundit predictions, and it shows that quite frequently so-called experts have no idea what they’re talking about.
Now, on one hand, this is kind of a troubling thing for Deweyan pragmatists like me. We’re all about doing empirical research and using that to make better decisions. But it’s important to note that Dewey warned that experts can quickly get cut off from the experience of the rest of society and start getting too wrapped up in their own concerns. Dewey believed in the ability of the average person to use information provided by experts to make sound decisions on their own. So Tetlock’s findings may fit with that.
Also, Menand writes that Tetlock has found that certain psychological traits can improve predictions. Don’t get wrapped up in a big idea; appreciate the complexity and context of particular situations; admit when you’re wrong; don’t fall in love with particular details. It’s a great discussion of how purely “logical” or “rational” thought is not human beings’ natural mode of dealing with the world. Our brains are wired to take certain shortcuts and use certain devices which may well be necessary given the world’s complexity, but which can often blind us to the mistakes we’re making.
Go check out the review. Well worth the read.
About Dave Thomer
Born and raised in Philadelphia. Studied philosophy at Fordham University in the Bronx, where I made many great friends and met my wonderful wife. We moved back to Philadelphia, where I studied philosophy some more and became a teacher. Online and off, I'm looking for ways that we can be better citizens and build stronger communities.