It looks almost certain that California is going to move its presidential primary to early February. And if California does it, other states are going to do it. We could be heading pretty close to a national primary this time around.
The one thing that I think is unequivocally bad about this is that it’s going to make candidates even more reliant on fundraising, and that always makes me nervous.
But I do like the idea of a large number of voters having a chance to evaluate the wide field of candidates. As long as I can remember, by the time Pennsylvania’s primary has rolled around, I might as well have voted for myself for the nomination for all the good it would do. Candidates will probably still pick the areas that they think they have the best shot in, but at least those areas will have a chance to make themselves heard.
I’m not sure I’ve really bought the idea that the retail campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire really makes a huge difference. Seems to me like a lot of those voters wait until the end of the campaign to start paying attention anyway – witness the big shifts that occurred in 2004 on the Democratic side and 2000 on the Republican side.
And there’s something to be said for the idea that, look, each party is picking a candidate who is going to have to run a national campaign. Why not have the nomination process actually test that capacity?