I know that doing things for show is a time honored political tradition. And sometimes it’s a valid technique to raise an issue or highlight a stance. But from all indications, Republicans’ efforts to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage isn’t just a political stunt, it’s an ineffective political stunt.
The Amendment has failed a cloture vote with 49 in favor and 48 against. 60 votes are necessary to end debate and actually vote on the amendment, where 67 votes would be necessary to pass it. So you can see that supporters are a wee bit short.
That won’t stop the House of Representatives from voting on the amendment in July, though. Nor will it stop some in the Senate from spinning this as a victory.
Colorado Republican Sen. Wayne Allard, the bill’s sponsor, did not expect the gay-marriage ban to pass but hoped to demonstrate increased support since 2004, when 48 senators voted for a similar bill.
NOT DISAPPOINTED
Allard and other backers said they were not disappointed that the measure only won 49 votes this time.
“Clearly as time goes on there will be more votes in favor of this,” said South Dakota Republican Sen. John Thune. “We make a little headway each time this is debated.”
Now on the surface this may seem true – 48 votes last time, 49 now. But Republicans gained several seats in the Senate in the 2004 election, so support should have grown by more than one vote. And in fact, two Republicans who voted yes in 2004 voted no in 2006. (One of them, Arlen Specter, is from my home state. In 2004 Specter barely survived a primary challenge from the right. Now he seems to have no such concerns.)
And according to the article, the Senate isn’t the only place where people are changing their minds.
According to a March 2006 poll by the Pew Research Center, 51 percent of Americans oppose same-sex marriage, down from 63 percent in February 2004.
If the trend continues in that direction, pretty soon opposition to same-sex marriage will be a minority position. (Indeed, Massachusetts has, at least temporarily, given up efforts to pass a constitutional amendment overturning the court decision that legalized same-sex marriage there, in part because many legislators have seen that same-sex marriage just isn’t doing any real damage to society.) I have a hunch that in 25-50 years, opposition to same-sex marriage is going to be one of those things our descendents look back on and wonder how we could ever have thought it was a sensible position.